Annual Meeting

Tuesday, February 24, 2004

10:15 a.m.-12:00 p.m.

Session One: 2003 IGSM2 Enhancements and Selected Applications

IGSM2 Activities During 2003, Tariq Kadir (DWR)  0.3 MB

A brief overview of activities in 2003 related to IGSM2 including enhancements, public workshops, and IGSM2 User’s Group meetings.

IGSM2 Enhancements (Version 2.0), Can Dogrul (DWR)   0.4 MB

IGSM2 version 2.0 was made available to the public in December 2003.  This version of IGSM2 includes many improvements compared to the previous versions including: variable time step specified by the user; simultaneous solution of equations for streams, lakes and groundwater for a robust simulation of interactions between these components; and improved agricultural water demand computations and automated adjustment of diversions and pumping to meet the water demand are among the most prominent enhancements.

Application to the Central Valley: CVGSM2 Update, Michael Moncrief (DWR)   0.5 MB

The presentation will be on the updated CVGSM2 application of IGSM2 whereby the historical and projected simulations will be used for hydrologic planning studies.  It will focus on the changes that were made to the previous CVGSM both to accommodate the new engine IGSM2 and the revisiting of the input database, and finally the current status of the calibration process.

Application to the Western San Joaquin Valley: WESTSIM Update , Nigel Quinn (LBNL/USBR) and Jafar Faghih (MWH, Inc.)    2 MB

WESTSIM is a detailed groundwater and surface water simulation model of the west-side of the San Joaquin Valley covering the entire federal service area. The model is unique in its resolution at the water district level, the attention devoted to developing accurate input data and the graphical user interface and data management system that support the current model. WESTSIM is the most advanced current application of the IGSM2 model code besides CVGSM.  Applications of the model are as follows: groundwater conjunctive use planning in Grassland Basin wetlands; water district budgets for water conservation planning; land retirement planning on selenium affected lands and assessing the potential for regional aquifer subsidence. 

Data Management System and Graphical User Interface, Jon Goetz (MWH, Inc.)

This presentation will supplement the previous presentation on the WESTSim model with the application of a DMS and IGSM GUI for the region.  Several examples will be given to illustrate the DMS as a tool to view and compare monitored and modeled groundwater data in both tabular and graphical formats and to expose the audience to the concept of a single data management tool for managing a groundwater basin and watershed.

Session Two: Forecasting Delta Drinking Water Quality and the California Aqueduct

Real Time Data and Forecasting, Rich Breuer (DWR)   1.4 MB

Traditionally water quality data have been collected and presented in a historical view. With the development of real time sensors and the Internet, the ability to view and analyze water quality data in real and near real time is now possible. The side benefit of the continuous data is the use in forecasting. The robust data sets permit refinement of modeling tools for forecasting water quality. The integration of hydrology data, water quality data, modeling data, and operations data will create opportunities for operations planning based on foreknowledge of delivered water quality.

Current Efforts to Forecast Delta Water Quality-EC, Art Hinojosa (DWR)

DWR’s Operations Compliance & Studies Section regularly utilized DSM2 to forecast water level and quality conditions in the Delta.  Model results in conjunction with other analyses help guide operational decisions of both the State Water Project and the Central Valley Project.

Current Efforts to Forecast California Aqueduct Water Quality, Tony Liudzius (MWDSC)

A model has been developed to simulate water quality in the California Aqueduct. Recently the model was used to develop a water management strategy to improve water quality and meet regulations during a major outage at Lake Mathews.

Future Development of Forecasting Tools for Delta and Aqueduct Water Quality , Michael Mierzwa (DWR)

The California Department of Water Resources Division of O&M’s water supply outlook forecasts have been used by DSM2 to simulate water quality at the State Water Project’s Banks Pumping Plant for the January, March, and May seasonal forecasts of 1998, 1999, and 2000.  The accuracy of these long-term water supply outlook DSM2 forecasts was found to vary seasonally, based roughly upon the ability to accurately forecast water supply later in the year.  Development tasks necessary to improve both forecasting tools and planned major milestones associated with this work are discussed.

1:15-3:00 p.m.

Session Three: San Joaquin River Basin Hydrology and Simulation

Hydrology Developments and Operations, Walter Bourez (MBK Engineers)

 Abstract not available.

Overview of the CALSIM II Water Quality Module for Simulation of EC on the San Joaquin River at Vernalis, Claire Hsu (USBR)

Surface agricultural runoff and subsurface agricultural discharge are the major sources of salt for the San Joaquin River.  Salt loading from the agricultural practice leads to degradation of the water quality of the Delta and the lower San Joaquin Basin.  CALSIM II has been used as a planning tool to study water quality and water supply for the CVP/SWP operations for many projects such as the Upper San Joaquin Basin Storage Investigation Project, San Luis Drainage Project , and other projects that need to assess the Delta salinity. 

In 2003, the U. S. Bureau of Reclamation proposed three phases to improve the water quality simulation of CALSIM II from the Lander Avenue to Vernalis.  These three phases include a link-node structure that replaces the single mass balance equation at Vernalis with link-node approach from the Lander Avenue to Vernalis and assigned individual EC values to each inflows of the San Joaquin River for Phase I; using a more detailed disaggregation method that can better represent the water quality components of the San Joaquin River and using SJRIO and WESTSIM models pumped groundwater return, base groundwater and tile drainage return flows information for the Westside of the San Joaquin River for Phase II; the final phase will be the integration of  both the water quality from phase I and II work and the San Joaquin hydrology and operation refinement to produce a new Benchmark Study for the San Joaquin Basin.

CALSIM II Water Quality Module for Simulation of EC on the San Joaquin River at Vernalis, Yung-Hsin Sun (MWH, Inc.)

Abstract not available.

Session Four: California North Coast Water Supply and Quality Modeling

Operation Modeling in the Russian River Watershed, Chris Murray (SCWA)

 Abstract not available.

Application of CALSIM II to the Klamath River Basin, Nancy Parker (USBR)

The Klamath River basin has made high profile headlines since 2001 when a court decision to reserve water for endangered species forced Klamath Project managers to cut off deliveries to irrigators.  I will present a brief history of the project and the current water management challenges, and discuss how modeling applications are evolving to meet new management and analysis needs. 

Flow and Water Quality Modeling in the Klamath River from Klamath Falls to the Pacific Ocean, Mike Deas (Watercourse Engineering, Inc.)

A suite of models was implemented to represent flow and water quality on the Klamath River from Link Dam to the Pacific Ocean - a distance of over 250 miles - to assess project impacts associated with hydropower production.  Water quality problems encountered in the study reach include elevated temperatures, depressed dissolved oxygen in river and reservoir reaches (including severe anoxia in larger system reservoirs), and other water quality problems associated with eutrophication.  The modeling framework includes four reservoirs and intermediate river reaches, as well as agricultural withdrawals and return flows, municipal and industrial inputs, and tributaries.  The rivers are modeled in one-dimension (longitudinal) with the RMA-2 and RMA-11 for hydrodynamics and water quality, respectively.  The reservoir reaches are modeled with CE-QUAL-W2, a two dimensional (longitudinal and vertical) model.  Full water quality simulations include temperature, dissolved oxygen, organic and inorganic nutrients, phytoplankton and benthic algae, BOD, and SOD. The models run on a maximum time step of one hour.  Spatial resolution varied among the river and reservoir reaches, with river reaches having a maximum resolution of 150 meters, and reservoirs approximately 300-600 meters longitudinally and from 0.6 to 2 meters vertically.  Calendar year simulations are completed for two years 

The models have been calibrated and applied to various scenarios including a baseline case representing existing conditions, a steady flow scenario wherein hydropower peaking operations do not occur, and a without project scenario wherein all reservoirs are absent and the river models are used throughout the study reach.  Other analysis includes selective withdrawal studies, hypothetical hypolimnetic oxygenation, modifying hydropeaking flow volumes, and scenarios wherein selected reservoirs are removed.

4:15-6:00 p.m.

Session Five: Modeling of Water Transfers

California's Emerging Water Market - Transfers and Policy Issues, Ellen Hanak (Public Policy Institute of California)

Water marketing in California got a jumpstart with the early 1990s drought, and has since become a regular, if modest, feature of water allocations in the state.  However, most transfers are short-term in nature, and cities still account for a surprisingly small share of purchases. Key stumbling blocks to further market development arise from concerns over negative third-party impacts within agricultural source region

Metropolitan's 2003 Colorado River Contingency Transfer in Retrospect, Paul Hutton (MWDSC)

Metropolitan Water District, in coordination with the Department of Water Resources, secured several one-year option contracts to purchase water from several Sacramento Valley rice farmers in 2003. Metropolitan ultimately purchased about 75% of the option water as insurance against low allocations from the Colorado River and the State Water Project. This talk surveys Metropolitan's first experience in purchasing water on the open market and lessons learned from this experience.

Assessment of Surface Water and Groundwater Impacts Related to Implementation of the Sacramento Valley Water Management Agreement, Peter Lawson (CH2M Hill)

Presentation will focus on the development and application of a three-dimensional finite-element groundwater flow model to perform a preliminary assessment of impacts related to the implementation of conjunctive water management projects in the Sacramento Valley. A superposition approach is employed to estimate the incremental impacts that would occur due to implementation of the projects. Critical parameters for monitoring are also identified to aid in the development of project-specific groundwater monitoring plans.

Water Transfers Tool: Evaluating Water Transfer Reliability through Modeling,
Armin Munevar (CH2M Hill)

The evaluation of water transfers capability is an important part of the planning activities of several water management programs in California, particularly those with direct impacts to the Bay-Delta. The ability to estimate the parameters affecting water transfers timing and conveyance usage has direct impacts on the evaluation of new facilities proposed in the CALFED Record of Decision and the allocation of benefits of such facilities. This presentation introduces the Water Transfers Tool (WTT) and explores other modeling methods for assessing both the effectiveness and impacts of water transfers.

Session Six: Modeling as a Tool for Floodplain Restoration

Observations of a Consumnes River Floodplain, Michael Anderson (UC Davis)  format; 3.6 MB

Abstract not available

Two-Dimensional Hydraulic Modeling to Support Riparian Restoration Planning, Upper Sacramento River Floodplain, Tom Smith (Ayres and Associates)     format; 10 .5 MB

Abstract not available.

Hydrodynamic Modeling as a Tool for Floodplain Restoration, Chris Bowles (PWA)     format; 5.6 MB

Abstract not available.

7:00-10:00 p.m.

Session Seven: Evening Program

Poster Session, Sponsored by Mike Deas of Watercourse Engineering, Inc.

The CWEMF: Ten Years of Promoting Excellence and Consensus in Water and Environmental Modeling,  Rich Satkowski (CWEMF Exec. Dir.)  

TheCalifornia Water and Environmental Modeling Forum (CWEMF) is a non-profit, "consensus" organization whose mission is to increase the usefulness of models for analyzing California’s water-related problems with emphasis in the San Francisco Bay-Delta watershed.   The CWEMF, which was formed in 1994, is celebrating its 10-year anniversary at its 2004 Annual Meeting on February 24-26, 2004.  Over the past ten years, the CWEMF has promoted excellence and consensus in water and environmental modeling by doing the following:

  • Providing a consensus-building atmosphere on water-related issues;
  • Maintaining a modeling clearinghouse that provides an open forum for the exchange, improvement, and pooling of models, modeling information, and professional resources;
  • Assisting in mediating technical disputes involving physical, chemical, biological, and economic modeling;
  • Conducting impartial peer reviews of models in order to document strengths and weaknesses, suggest improvements, and identify appropriate applications;
  • Seeking input from California water stakeholders and decision makers about their modeling needs; and
  • Providing educational opportunities through technical conferences and workshops.

The Central Valley Project – The Early Years, Lloyd Peterson (USBR)  (FotoAngelo self-executing slideshow; 2.7 MB)

This presentation is drawn entirely from an August 1945 report titled "A Condensed Presentation of the Central Valley Project: Its Present Status and Potential Development."  This report provides a view from that time.  This is a simpler, but fully functioning CVP that is easier to understand (and easier to explain).

Wednesday, February 25, 2004

8:15-10:00 a.m.

Session Eight: Reports on Stakeholder and CWEMF Activities / Annual Business Meeting 

No Abstracts. 

10:15 a.m.-12:00 p.m. 

Session Nine: California Water Plan Update 2003 and Beyond  PowerPoint Slideshow (.pps; 0.5 MB)

Findings and Recommendations for the California Water PlanUpdate 2003 and Beyond, Kamyar Guivetchi and Rich Juricich (DWR)

During the development of the California Water Plan Update 2003 it has become clear that analytical tool and data development has not kept pace with the growing public awareness of the complexity and interaction between water-related issues.  A critical issue facing California is the need for better data and tools to produce useful information about supply reliability, environmental objectives, water quality, economic issues, equity issues, and ground and surface water interaction.  Also, there is a need to better integrate details associated with regional and local planning into the studies being conducted from a statewide perspective.  Water Plan staff have worked with Advisory Committee members, stakeholders interested in modeling, and other planning processes, to develop both short-term and long-term work plans to improve our analytical capabilities. These work plans will be included in the Update 2003.  The short-term plan is intended to develop consensus on the analytical approach for Update 2008.  The long-term plan is intended to work with multiple local, regional, federal and State planning efforts to develop an acceptable statewide analytical approach that is better integrated with local and regional efforts. 

Session Ten: Wetlands Modeling

Everglades Agricultural Area Wetlands Project, Jesper Kjelds (DHI)

Abstract not available.

Napa County Baseline Data Report, Ken Schwarz (JSA) and Jesper Kjelds (DHI)

Abstract not available.

An Integrated Model for Evaluating Wetland Hydrology, Hydrodynamics, Water Quality and Ecology, Kate Huckelbridge (UC Berkeley)

Abstract not available. 

1:15-3:00 p.m. 

Session Eleven: Illustrations of Risk and Uncertainty Management in DWR/USBR Decision Processes

Approach and Work Plan of Joint DWR-USBR Work Group on Climate Change, Jamie Anderson (DWR)     PowerPoint Slideshow (.pps; 3 MB)

This Department of Water Resources and the Bureau of Reclamation have recently established a joint team to investigate climate change impacts on California's water resources.  The current work plan for the joint climate change team will be presented.  Challenges in addressing uncertainties and assessing risk will be highlighted.

Climate Changes and Runoff in the 21st Century--What are the models trying to tell us?,  Mike Dettinger (USGS/UCSD Scripps)

In the near future, global warming trends are likely to superimpose on the 'normal' climate variations that California's water systems are designed to accommodate. Deciding how to accommodate this new climatic regime will require assessments of the risks associated with the trends; that is, decision makers will need to know how likely are various climatic outcomes and how large would be their impacts. Many climate projections now exist and allow us to investigate the range of possible futures for California. Current climate models project warming by about 3 to 5ºC, in response to a range of greenhouse-gas increases during the 21st Century. This level of warming would cause significant changes in the seasonality of streamflow, floods, and summer drought conditions in California. Projected changes in precipitation over California are more uncertain.  However, as more and more projections by different models responding to different possible future greenhouse-gas emission scenarios are compiled, a consensus among models) is developing, indicating that precipitation changes over California might be small.  A resampling method for estimating the joint probability distributions from available temperature and precipitation projections is demonstrated, incorporating 18 recent climate projections by 6 different models. The distribution of projection by current models allows us to concentrate on the "more likely" climatic (and hydrologic) outcomes, rather than the "least likely".

Daily Scheduling of Hydropower Consumption:  CVOO Decisions, Water User Risks, Levi Brekke (USBR)

A risk analysis is presented on CVP daily hydropower scheduling.  CVP Operations (CVO) will replace PG&E as its own hydro scheduler in CY2005.  At that time, CVP water users will bear the financial risks of penalties levied by CA-ISO when CVO's instructed schedules deviate from subsequent actual schedules.  Much of this risk stems from "Sum of Minors" CVP Project Use, driven by water user behavior.  A risk assessment, based on 1993-2002 data, simple scheduling, and current penalty structure assumptions, suggests annual costs of scheduling would exceed $2M in 10% of years and $1M in 50% of years.  Risk management focuses on reducing risk through improved load information at the time of scheduling.  Load monitoring was found to be effective at reducing risk variability.  Conservative inflation of monitored load was found to be capable of almost "zeroing-out" magnitude of risk.  Choice of inflation factor is an unresolved issue linked to a trade-off: a greater inflation factor reduces risk magnitude from a penalties perspective, but not from a WAPA's hydro-marketing perspective.

Session Twelve: Multi-Dimensional Modeling I

Lessons Learned from Specific Delta Habitats: When and Where We Need to Use Multi-Dimensional Models, Nancy Monsen (USGS)

Three recent field studies in Mildred Island, Frank's Tract and Three Mile Slough have provided a wealth of information about scalar gradients within these regions and exchanges with their surrounding channel "neighborhoods." I will discuss lessons learned from field measurements and numerical simulations of circulation and transport in these regions using Delta TRIM, a multi-dimensional hydrodynamic and transport model.

Modeling of Franks Tract, John DeGeorge (Resource Management Associates) 

Options for channel modifications in the region of Franks Tract have become an important topic recently as possible, relatively low cost, means of controlling salinity intrusion into the Delta. Initial modeling by DWR and other groups suggests that changing the configuration of Franks Tract to reduce tidal mixing could have a very significant positive impact on water quality in the south Delta.  Early modeling has utilized one-dimensional models of the Delta, and because Franks Tract is a large open water body,  one-dimensional models may not provide reliable estimates of the magnitude the salinity impact resulting from changes to the configuration of Franks Tract.  RMA has developed and maintains a numerical model of the San Francisco Bay and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta that utilizes both one and two-dimensional elements and is capable of detailed representation of the two-dimensional flow field in and around Franks Tract.  Under the direction of DWR and an Ad Hoc Modeling Team comprised of representatives from DWR, USGS, Contra Costa Water District, East Bay MUD, and Metropolitan Water District, RMA has work on a detailed calibration of the RMA Bay-Delta model with the objective of producing a tool with adequate accuracy to perform reliable evaluation of alternative configurations of Franks Tract.  This talk presents a detailed status report of the RMA Bay-Delta model calibration for flow, stage, and salinity.  Concurrently with the investigation of Franks Tract, RMA is participating with the Delta Levee Risk Assessment Team looking at potential consequences of earthquake induced levee failures in the Delta.  The RMA Bay-Delta model is being used to simulate the dynamic salinity response resulting from initial flooding and on -going tidal mixing through the breached islands during the repair and recovery period.  A brief overview of this work will be presented.

Uncertainty in Hydrologic Modeling and the Curse of Dimensionality, Hubert Morel-Seytoux (Hydroprose International Consulting)      1. 2 MB

The various causes of uncertainty inherent in hydrologic predictions using models are reviewed.  Of particular concern are the errors introduced by the models themselves due to omission of important mechanisms in the hydrologic cycle or use of improper laws for the scales of interest. Several techniques to cope with uncertainty are discussed, namely: (1) Monte Carlo simulation, (2) Stochastic Differential Equations, (3) Explicit Multiple Integration, (4) Calculus of Moment propagation and (5) Compensation tricks.  A few detailed illustrations are provided to concretize the general concepts.  More rigorous hydrologic analysis is needed for the eventual development of the next generation models.

4:15-6:00 p.m.

Session Thirteen: 2003 CALSIM II Development and Applications I

Yuba River System Water Transfers Modeling, Jeff Weaver (MWH Americas) and Messele Ejeta (DWR)

Abstract not available.

Hydrologic Forecasts for the Allocation Model (CAM), Hongbing Yin (DWR) 

In order to meet the needs of CAM, monthly hydrologic forecasts at various exceedance levels were made at selected major river systems for the period of WY 1922-1998. A set of statistical seasonal flow forecast and monthly flow disaggregation models was developed for each selected basin. Basin impairment on forecasted streamflow was considered in basins where the impairment is significant. The forecast results were compared with historical records.

Development of an Allocation Model (CAM), Ryan Wilbur (DWR) and Hongbing Yin (DWR)

A brief introduction to CAM including its purpose, modeling approach, system representation, current status, and future development.

Session Fourteen: Multi-Dimensional Modeling II

REALM Overview and Status Report, Ralph Finch/Eli Ateljevich (DWR)

The River, Estuary, and Land Model is a project initiated by the DWR Delta Modeling Section to develop a state-of-the-art model to assist in solving the difficult problems facing the Delta.  REALM is a highly collaborative effort with partners such as Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and GIS programmers, and blends traditional water resources modeling techniques with design concepts from the computer science, data management and optimal control communities. The model design encompasses high quality flow, transport and particle modeling in 1D -2D -3D mixed dimensions, including important Bay-Delta features such as wetting and drying and reactive constituents and stratification. The model will also feature map -based visualization, interactive model steering, mathematical hooks for optimal control and data assimilation, and a programming architecture that efficiently implements numerous parallel processing and high performance data management.  An overview of the project, and current status, will be presented.

3D Lagrangian Residual Circulation in San Francisco Bay, Peter Smith (USGS)

A three-dimensional, random-walk particle-tracking model (PTM) has been developed to run as a post-processor for the 3-D estuarine hydrodynamic model Si3D, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Interagency Ecological Program. The hydrodynamic and particle-tracking models have been applied to San Francisco Bay for use in estimating the time-varying 3-D Lagrangian residual circulation throughout the bay during the high-inflow water year of 1998.   The Lagrangian residual circulation is compared with estimates of the 3-D Eulerian residual circulation in each of the four major subembayments of San Francisco Bay (Suisun Bay, San Pablo Bay, Central Bay, and South Bay). Although the results from the models are still considered preliminary until further model validations are done, the Lagrangian residual circulation is shown to be very different in some areas of the bay from the Eulerian residual circulation.  This has important implications for understanding long-term transport processes in the bay. In general, the Lagrangian residual circulation is affected more by interactions of the tidal currents with the bathymetry of the bay.  In the south channel of Suisun Bay, the net Lagrangian movement of simulated particles can at times be strongly landward when the Eulerian residual current profile is seaward over the entire depth of flow.  In San Pablo Bay, the geometric features of Pinole Shoal and Point San Pablo are shown to have a pronounced effect on the Lagrangian residual circulation. In South Bay, a complex counterclockwise gyre is observed in the horizontal pattern of the Lagrangian residual circulation that is stronger and more orderly than a gyre observed in the Eulerian residual circulation.  The simulated results also illustrate that a relatively small pulse of freshwater inflow to the estuary is clearly discernable from the computations of the horizontal patterns of the Lagrangian residual circulation.  Validation of the hydrodynamic and particle tracking models is ongoing using velocity and salinity data collected in the bay.  Some results of the validation will be presented.

Physics of a 3D River Plume over the Continental Shelf using an Unstructured Grid Model, Ralph Cheng (USGS)

River derived fresh water discharging into an adjacent continental shelf forms a trapped river plume that propagates in a narrow region along the coast. These river plumes are real and they have been observed in the field. Many previous investigations have reported some aspects of the river plume properties, which are sensitive to stratification, Coriolis acceleration, winds (upwelling or downwelling), coastal currents, and river discharge. Numerical modeling of the dynamics of river plumes is very challenging, because the complete problem involves a wide range of vertical and horizontal scales. Proper simulations of river plume dynamics cannot be achieved without a realistic representation of the flow and salinity structure near the river mouth that controls the initial formation and propagation of the plume in the coastal ocean. In this study, an unstructured grid model was used for simulations of river plume dynamics allowing fine grid resolutions in the river and in regions near coast, and coarse grid in the far field of the river plume in coastal ocean. In the vertical, fine fixed levels were used near the free surface, and coarse vertical levels were used over the continental shelf. The simulations have demonstrated the uniquely important role played by Coriolis acceleration. Without Coriolis acceleration, no trapped river plume can be formed no matter how favorable the ambient conditions might be. The simulation results show properties of the river plume and the characteristics of flow and salinity within the estuary; they are completely consistent with the physics of estuary and coastal ocean.

7:00-10:00 p.m. 

Session Fifteen: Evening Program

Presentation of the Hugo B. Fischer Award

The Hugo B. Fischer Award, which is made in honor of the late Professor Hugo B. Fischer's pioneering work on San Francisco Bay-Delta water quality modeling, is given annually for (1) the development, refinement or innovative application of a computer model or (2) furtherance of the effective use of models in planning or regulatory functions.  The award was conceived and endowed in 1995 by Lyle Hoag, retired Executive Director of California Urban Water Agencies, who was a co-founder of the Modeling Forum.

Remarks by the Hugo B. Fischer Award Recipient

The recipient will discuss the modeling-related work associated with the award.

The Tectonic Context and Evolution of the San Francisco Bay, Delta, and Central Valley, Eldridge Moores (UC Davis)

Abstract not available.

Thursday, February 26, 2004 

8:15-10:00 a.m.

Session Sixteen:  California Long-Term Water Modeling Planning

Process and Timeline, Jay Lund (UC Davis)

The California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum is beginning a process to plan for California's long-term water modeling needs.  The CWEMF has drafted the process steps and timeline for the next 12 months.

Long-Term Visions, Selected Participants

 The CWEMF has asked various water stakeholders and modelers for their ideas and visions on how to best plan for California’s long-term water modeling needs.  More specifically, the CWEMF asked them to provide brief responses to the following questions:

1.  What types of water-related problems will California need to analyze during the next ten years?  What are the key issues?

2.  What type of answers should we expect from modeling?  How should we expect modeling and model results to contribute to decision-making processes?

3.  What is your ten-year vision (technically and institutionally) for increasing the usefulness of models for analyzing California’s water-related problems?

4.  In the near term, what should be the role of the CWEMF?  What is the most practicable and efficient mechanism to coordinate with model developers/users and stakeholders?

The results of the submitted vision statements will be summarized and reported during this session.

10:15 a.m.-12:00 p.m.

Session Seventeen: 2003 CALSIM II Development and Applications II

Incorporating Rice Straw Decomposition Water Demand in the Hydrology Development Process, Messele Ejeta (DWR)

The consumptive use computer program used by the California Department of Water Resources has been modified to model rice straw decomposition water requirement during the fall to winter season. The results of the consumptive use model are used to prepare input data for CALSIM II hydrology. Preliminary results of additional applied water requirement for straw decomposition at a future level of land use development will be presented.

Development of “CalSim 2.0”: Enhancements to the GUI and Solver, Ryan Wilbur (DWR) and Clay Booher (DWR)

Abstract not available.

New and Improved EWA Representation, Levi Brekke (USBR)

The CALSIM II representation of EWA operations has been updated and refined.  The presentation highlights general modeling objectives for representing EWA in CALSIM II, outlines issues with CALSIM II's EWA representation in the 09/30/02 Benchmark Studies, and summarizes refinement elements.  Application of CALSIM II's new EWA representation was implemented in DRAFT OCAP studies recently made available to the public (http://www.usbr.gov/mp/cvo/ocap.html ); results are presented from those studies.

Session Eighteen: Integrating State-Wide Groundwater Data Sets to Assess Anthropogenic Impacts to California Groundwater

Using Centralized Database Coordination and Access to Assess Groundwater Vulnerability, Brendan Dooher (LLNL)

The Internet has allowed a degree of collaboration among information resources that was unknown only a decade ago.   One of these resource centers is GeoTracker, a system designed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), to assist the SWRCB in managing over 15 ,000 active Leaking Underground Fuel Tank (LUFT) sites around California.   This effort has now been expanded to include groundwater data from the Department of Health Services, which collects historical groundwater quality data from California’s 12,000+ drinking water wells.   By implementing a statistical analysis tool kit (the public domain “R” package) in the database, and making the information available to researchers, collaborative efforts will accelerate the building of our understanding of anthropogenic impacts to groundwater basins. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the University of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No. W-7405-ENG-48.

Comparing Groundwater Contamination Vulnerability in Large, Urbanized Basins of California, Jean Moran (LLNL)

We have sampled over 600 public drinking water wells as part of a study to assess relative contamination susceptibility of the major groundwater basins in California.  The parameters used to rank wells according to vulnerability are groundwater age dates (using the tritium-3helium method), stable isotopes of the water molecule (for water source determination), and occurrence of low level Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs).   Results from the highly urbanized basins of the coastal regions (Los Angeles, Orange County, and Santa Clara Valley), and from the rapidly urbanizing Central Valley (Sacramento, San Joaquin County and Bakersfield), will be compared and contrasted.  This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the University of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No. W-7405-ENG-48.

Nitrate in California Groundwater: An Overview of Source Loading and Denitrification on Different Spatial Scales, Walt McNab, Jr. (LLNL)

More than one-third of the active public drinking water supply wells in California produce water with nitrate levels indicative of anthropogenic input.  Understanding the loading and fate of nitrate in groundwater is important for water supply planning.  In this study, the correlations of nitrate concentrations with a variety of geochemical indicators (e.g., inorganic carbon, pH, redox indicators, isotopic data) in a variety of data sets (state-wide public water supply well water quality data, individual groundwater basins, and field sites) are being examined in the context of geochemical models of nitrate loading.  Preliminary results suggest widespread groundwater nitrate impacts, attributable to both organic and chemical fertilizers, as manifested by a commonality of geochemical trends.  This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the University of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No. W-7405-ENG-48.

1:15-3:00 p.m.

Session Nineteen: CALSIM II Sacramento River Basin Hydrology Enhancements Walter Bourez (MBK Engineers) and Andy Draper (MWH Americas)      format 1.7 MB

The purpose of this project is to develop a more accurate representation of the Sacramento River Basin in CALSIM II . Enhancements include: increased special resolution, improved hydrology development methods, refined hydrologic factors, and improved compatibility with other analytical tools.  GIS is used to better define geographic areas and associate land use based demands to the appropriate water supply source. Methods for developing water demands are consistent with economic and groundwater models. Hydrologic factors, such as efficiency, reuse, losses, and deep percolation are being updated to reflect actual field conditions.

Session Twenty: 2003 DSM2 Developments and Applications

Assessing Temperature and Dissolved Oxygen Changes in the Delta Due to Planned Operations, Hari Rajbhandari (DWR)

Data needs for planning studies to assess DO and temperature impacts of project operations on Delta water quality are outlined.  A recent study is discussed in which the boundary data were developed based on extrapolation of available field data.  This study used the hydrologic information (water years 1976-1991) obtained from the water resources planning model CALSIM II.

Use of DSM2 Fingerprinting to Determine How the South Delta Temporary Barriers Change Water Composition in the Delta , Jamie Anderson (DWR)

This study examines the effects of temporary barriers on mixing and water quality in the South Delta. DSM2 simulations were conducted for the SDIP 2001 Base case with no barriers and with temporary barriers. For both scenarios, DSM2 fingerprinting was used to determine percent flow contributions (i.e. how much flow came from the San Joaquin River, the Sacramento River, etc) at three D1641 compliance locations and three urban intakes.   Corresponding simulated EC concentrations were also examined. Analysis focused on dry years when the temporary barriers are operated the longest.

DSM2 Results for SDIP Tidal Triggers and Monthly Percentiles,  Russ Brown (JSA) and Aaron Miller (DWR)

The DSM2 Delta tidal hydraulics and water quality model was used to simulate SDIP alternatives for the water year 1976 -1991 period.  The planning model used the CALSIM monthly inflows and exports, with April and May VAMP period flows and exports.  Adjusted astronomical tidal stage variations with matching EC boundary conditions at Martinez were used.   Tidal hydraulic conditions and water quality (EC and DOC) were summarized with monthly percentile and average values to show the full range of tidal conditions for each set of monthly flows and exports at 52 locations within the Delta. Graphics comparing the minimum, 10%, average, 90%, and maximum monthly values for a baseline and alternative simulation at a location are shown for the 16-year sequence in the EIR/EIS. Simulations for various temporary barrier arrangements and tidal gate operations are also compared.

Particle tracking was used to demonstrate the effects of pumping and Delta outflow on the entrainment of “fish-like” particles.  Passive particle tracking simulated the likely effects of pumping on larval fish life stages that move directly with the tidal flows in the Delta.  Tidal triggers were used to simulate downstream “tidal surfing” behavior of particles.  Particles moved to the surface (higher velocity) during ebb tide periods (declining stage) and moved to the bottom (lower velocity) during slack or flood tide periods.  Particle releases were made from 10 locations on the first day of each 30-day simulation with constant inflows and pumping.  The daily cumulative percentages of the particles that were entrained at CVP, SWP, and in agricultural diversion and the cumulative percentage of particles moving “past Chipps” and “past Martinez” were reported. These PTM results were summarized for a range of export pumping (CVP of 4,600 cfs and SWP of 0 cfs to 10,300 cfs) with Delta outflows of 5,000 cfs, 7,000 cfs, and 12,000 cfs .  A similar series of PTM results were summarized for the 10 VAMP cases.  These PTM results provide a useful understanding of the effects of Delta pumping on entrainment of particles that may enter the Delta or spawn in various regions of the Delta.  The incremental entrainment effects from additional pumping for each region of the Delta were identified from the results.

DSM2 Model Users Group, Min Yu (DWR)

The Delta Modeling Section has initiated and committed to hosting a DSM2 Users Group to promote the exchange of ideas, information, and issues involving the development and use of DSM2.  The initial meeting was held on January 27.  This presentation provides an overview of the Users Group and summarizes the topics and issues discussed at the first meeting.